Keeping An Eye On Boring Technology

Communications tools don’t get socially interesting until they get technologically boring.

-Clay Shirky

The same could be true of many kinds of technology.

What counts as boring?

The ubiquitous…the expected…the familiar.

This is a just catchy way of saying that new things only begin to produce an impact once they become sufficiently widespread that they no longer offer any novelty.

Exhibit A is solar energy.  I’ll forgive you for grumbling if you have heard this a hundred times before.  For all of my lifetime renewable energy has been the modern fountain of youth, always just beyond the horizon.  For as long as I can remember I’ve heard the rhetoric that we could a have cheap, clean, renewable supply of energy if only (the government, the oil industry, etc) would get out of the way.

And then of course there are the peak oilers and the Randian free marketers who believe that renewable energy is synonymous with government intervention, and who therefore insist that it will never EVER be viable.

***

Recently there was a brief period of decidedly non-boring irrational exuberance.  Venture capital flooded into the rebranded Green Energy sector, primarily chasing thin film solar panels.  The public excitement culminated in the Solyndra debacle of September 2011.  Solyndra declared bankruptcy after receiving $535m in government loan guarantees, sparking the usual political debate.

For me the hype cycle reached its peak a few years earlier when Nanosolar released video of its production equipment reeling off solar cells like newspaper off a printing press.  It claimed at the time that this $1.65m machine could print off 1GW of solar cells per year.  Even at the time the claim sounded outlandish.  Now it sounds downright absurd.

But this was after being named one of Time Magazine’s best inventions of 2008 and Popular Science’s 2007 Innovation of the Year.  At the time Nanosolar’s PR machine was on fire, and for anyone paying attention it certainly seemed like our clean energy future was just around the corner.

Unfortunately, that PR video seems to have been purged from the internet (similar stuff can still be found on youtube).  An article from gigaom associated with the press release still exists, though the embedded youtube player now features a dead link.

Why would Nanosolar kill the video?

Well, not too long thereafter they began churning through new CEOs.  Last year they took additional investment at a valuation that might as well have been $0 (a 97.5% decline). Then last week Nanosolar laid off 75% of its staff.

Dread and Disequilibrium

Welcome to everyone who has found their way here from the Tempo blog.  To regular subscribers who received an unfinished draft in their email or rss feed, my apologies.  [One of the downsides of automation is that it magnifies small mistakes...one misplaced click and an updated draft is instantly published, tweeted, rss'd, and so on.]

The completed draft is now a guest post that can be found here: The Cloistered Hedgehog and The Dislocated Fox.

The hedgehog and the fox archetypes were popularized by Isaiah Berlin in his essay of the same name:

For there exists a great chasm between those, on one side, who relate everything to a single central vision, one system, less or more coherent or articulate, in terms of which they understand, think and feel – a single, universal, organising principle in terms of which alone all that they are and say has significance – and, on the other side, those who pursue many ends, often unrelated and even contradictory, connected, if at all, only in some de facto way, for some psychological or physiological cause, related to no moral or aesthetic principle.

One interesting aspect of these archetypes that I only briefly touched on in the guest post is the desire to transcend (or escape) them…to break out of the personas that have been established through countless encounters between constitution and environment.  The grass is always greener.  Yet when we attempt to do so we undermine ourselves by smuggling in essential elements of our comfort zone.

For the hedgehog that comfort zone is a certain performance regime entailing known rules of the game.  For the fox that comfort zone is the exploration of novel domains for what we might call universal strategies, or colloquially – wisdom.

The trouble is that real change is necessarily preceded by disequilibrium.  But psychological disequilibrium is painful…I believe intrinsically so.  To be clear, I don’t mean pain in the sense of fetishized pain that is coupled with pleasure…your workout may be painful and the demands of your job may be painful, but that is the kind of stress with which we grow comfortable, and which is easily fetishized into pleasure.

I mean real unequivocal psychological Pain.  I mean suffering.  Real change requires suffering.

***

Though it might seem like the fox seeks out disequilibrium, it would be more accurate to say that - by adapting existing mental models to multiple domains - the fox actually constructs a stable equilibrium.  Eventually the fox develops a nose for those domains likely to yield to a particular brand of wisdom.  Environments that won’t yield, and that do in fact provoke disequilibrium – for example hedgehog environments that demand deep credulity – are avoided by foxes at all costs.

The analogous behavior for the hedgehog can be found in moments of crisis: mid-life crises, existential crises, crises of faith, and so on.  The common theme is the swapping of one central vision for another.  The stereotypical over-achiever who has a mid-life crisis goes out and buys a sports car.  He doesn’t skeptically contemplate his most fundamental assumptions…refusing to jump to conclusions and thereby leaving himself groundless.  Instead he goes all in on whatever shiny object first enters his awareness offering an alternative set of values.

***

Both types try to sneak in the backdoor, hoping to achieve change while subtly doubling down on existing foundations.  The fox – intent on discovering the commonalities underlying his explorations – responds by exploring all the more voraciously.  Berlin writes:

Tolstoy perceived reality in its multiplicity, as a collection of separate entities round and into which he saw with a clarity and penetration scarcely ever equalled, but he believed only in one vast, unitary whole.

The fox pursues that “unitary whole” by attempting to perceive multiplicity with ever more clarity.

Conversely, the hedgehog’s central vision becomes increasingly convoluted (we might even say multiplicitous) as it attempts to account for an accumulating mountain of exceptions and contradictions.

In a sense both do imitate the other, though not in the way they intend.

***

To truly break out we need the help of an inescapable commitment.  Such commitments can take many forms: a coach, an institution, a new environment.  The only minimal requirements are that:

  • the commitment once made cannot be renegotiated
  • the consequences of failure outweigh the pain of disequilibrium

Real change is almost always forced, and for good reason, but I’ll leave that until next time…

Innovation Starvation and the Zero Bound

innovation starvation

Recently I’ve become more sympathetic to the argument that big ambitious innovation is slowing.  At first I resisted the notion because frankly it seemed silly.  The advocates of this them overly conflate statistical growth with progress.  Peter Thiel in particular seems to simply be whining that no one has yet built him a jetpack (h/t Scott Smith)….

Evolution & Involution

Involution Evolution

This post will introduce a theme that runs throughout many of the ideas I have been working with recently – the relationship between evolution and involution. We are all familiar with evolution, the idea that micro-scale changes accumulated over time – via consistent selection pressures – can generate macro-scale change.  The evolutionary concept has been…

Development and the Conceptual Hierarchy

Kilimanjaro

Apologies for the recent dead air. I have been taking some time over the last few months to refresh my brain and focus on other priorities, one of which was a three week trip to Tanzania (with some travel through Nairobi, Kenya). It has taken a few weeks now to get over the jet lag (much worse on the return trip) and organize a few of the ideas floating about my head.

It ended up being a well timed trip. In the months prior I had noticed my writing beginning to stagnate and eventually decided to give it a break. Three weeks of travel – mostly off the grid – was exactly what I needed to reset the monkey mind.

Building Castles in a Sociological Sandbox

relationship economy 2

A couple weeks ago I joined yet another social network (YASN). This time it was Path, the mobile social network that limits the social graph to 150 close connections. I currently have three friends, none of whom I first met in the real world. It seems that Path is missing its intended market.

The first message I received was from Eddie Harran:

Hey Greg, welcome to yet another social media platform

I have been unable to reply as of yet because then Path inexplicably tells me that the post has been deleted (sorry Eddie). But this essay is not about the particulars features and failures of Path itself. It was inspired by Eddie’s welcome message, which perfectly captures the current zeitgeist in the social media space.

Many of us have now been through the ringer enough times to realize that web platforms come and go. People drift from one platform to another as the hype cycle ebbs and wanes.

When I first joined twitter a couple years ago I had the distinct sense that my social graph was slowly developing into an enduring asset. I now recognize the folly in that thinking. Each new platform offers the illusion of a lasting social graph, but the reality is that we are merely organizing temporary meeting spaces. We commingle in these digital environments for only a period of time before evaporative cooling pushes us elsewhere.

Case Studies in Narrative (Ir)Rationality

narrative irrationality

Over the past few weeks I have done a good amount of free form writing and lots of thinking but very little publishing. I have head too many moving pieces in my head that have are only slowly coalescing into thoughts coherent enough to post.

One thing that I have learned from my time blogging is that when I hit a wall, the worst possible response to try to charge through. The brute force approach only breeds more frustration and reinforces the existing blockage. A far better strategy is to stop straining. As Morpheus says in The Matrix: “Stop trying to hit me and hit me!” Sometimes it is best to stop trying and instead to just write, accepting whatever comes of it.

Entrepreneurial Process vs Epiphany

epiphany

Given my criticisms of the lean start-up literature, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Steve Blank’s blog post a couple days ago titled Blinded by the Light – The Epiphany. He starts off by relating the story of a recent meeting with an entrepreneur:

Luis, one of the CEO’s from our first National Science Foundation class, came in to speak to our next class. We had a couple of minutes to catch up between sessions and the conversation got strangely awkward when I asked him how their startup was going.

“I’m kind of embarrassed to tell you, but we dumped the entire business idea and are doing something else” he said, avoiding eye contact. “Oh, you pivoted when your team analyzed customer feedback?” I said as I grabbed some coffee. He looked uncomfortable. “No, I was standing in the shower when it just hit me that our nano-materials technology should be used for something completely different. I didn’t change a few business model components, I changed all of them.”

The Russian Doll Model of Economic Growth

economic paradigm

After working through two posts on the theme of socioeconomic evolution it became clear that the 2×2 matrix had reached the limits of its explanatory power.  Today we will try to open up some new avenues by playing with concentric circles. This post will just scratch the surface by addressing two questions: Why do companies…

Constructed Reality and The Cog-Wheel Hypothesis

Constructed Reality

Last week Greg Smith wrote an op-ed for the New York Times lambasting his former employer Goldman Sachs for the deterioration of the firm’s culture during his twelve years tenure. The next day Forbes ran a column asking - Did Greg Smith Commit Career Suicide?  It is one of the most unintentionally divisive bits of journalism you…

An Unformula For Coherence Seekers

coherence

I had been planning to write another piece in the socioeconomic evolution series. I wanted to clarify a lot of the material I introduced a couple weeks ago. It seemed like the “don’t be evil” framing got out of hand and distracted from the material it was intended to introduce.

This is something I struggle with often. I wrote a number of months ago about working backwards. That is how all my material comes into takes shape. The ideas appear first and take on a life of their own. One idea connects to another producing a tapestry of interconnections…

Eventually it comes time to articulate these patterns and communicate them to others…and that is when the difficulty starts. It is at that this point that I need to invent some narrative device that conveys to you – the reader – why you should care. This would be easy if I knew a priori why I care, but as I just explained, that is generally not the case. I care because this particular set of ideas made a bunch of intriguing connections in my head…not because I made a decision to care.

Unfortunately (for me), remarkable content rarely begins with:

“Hey you! Here’s some stuff I’ve been noodling on, and I think it is pretty cool…So pay attention!”

The Denial of Art in Science

art and science

Finch: It was strange. I suddenly had this feeling that everything was connected. It was like I could see the whole thing…one long chain of events that stretched all the way back before Lark Hill. I felt like I could see everything that had happened, and everything that was going to happen. It was like a perfect pattern laid out in front of me, and I realized that we are all part of it, and all trapped by it.

Dominic: So do you know what’s going to happen?

Finch: No, it was a feeling. But I can guess…

- V for Vendetta

A couple days ago I watched V for Vendetta for something like the 500th time. It is one of those brilliant movies I can watch over and over again, and notice something new each time (including a few flaws here and there). This time what struck me was the subtly implied dialectic between artistic sentimentality – characterized by V among others – and the coldly rationalistic orientation characterized by the primary villains, Creedy and Suttler.